NC-016··National-led coalition (with ACT & NZ First)·international
2030 NDC pathway unclear (no offshore credits)
Harm -1What happened
2030 NDC (50% below 2005) retained, but ministers ruled out offshore mitigation/carbon credits used by prior government without announcing a confirmed alternative domestic pathway.
Why it matters
Gap between headline 2030 target and credible delivery plan.
Impact assessment
Governance/credibility harm; target unchanged so scored as -1 (moderate harm) unless/until shortfall materialises.
Limitations: Policy evolving, awaiting official beehive statement. Rescore after second ERP consultation outcomes.
Attribution
shared (moderate confidence) -National, ACT
Climate and finance minister statements; ACT opposition to credit purchases.
Coalition period: National-led coalition (with ACT & NZ First) (27 November 2023 - present)
Categories
governancemitigation